The NBL and the Australian Route to the NBA

[2][5]

How the NBL’s Next Stars Program Works

The NBL's Next Stars program provides a clear pathway for high-level basketball prospects to develop professionally in Australia, as an alternative to U.S. college or European junior leagues. [3]

Since the 2018-19 season, the program has negotiated contracts with top young players from around the world, including several Americans, to play in the Australian NBL while preparing for the NBA draft the following year.

Team salaries and exposure differ from NCAA models, [7]

10 Perhaps not coincidentally, the 2020 NBA draft was the first to take place after the inaugural 2019-20 Next Stars season - producing a pipeline of picks.12

The NBL as a Professional Alternative to U.S. College

The Next Stars program works around U.S. college eligibility rules that require players to wait a year after graduating high school. 14

Instead, prospective NBA draft picks out of high school can sign to play in the NBL, putting them ahead of the U.S. college clock by a year. [7]11

Next Stars players receive a salary of at least A$100,000, as well as a car, apartment, and flights home. Contracts also stipulate that buyout fees for players signing with the NBA are shared between the NBL and the player’s club.

13

The NBA Pipeline: Who Has Actually Made It

Since the program began in 2018–19, 22 players have participated in Next Stars. Sixteen have been picked in the NBA draft.

The highest drafted NBL Next Star was LaMelo Ball, the No 3 overall pick in 2020. Also in the 2020 draft, Next Stars placed RJ Hampton's selection at No 24.

In 2021, Josh Giddey went to Oklahoma City as the 6th overall pick.[5][9]

They included a first-round pick in Ousmane Dieng,

and forward Ariel Hukporti, [2][5][9]

What the NBL and Analysts Claim About the Pathway

The NBL has billed Next Stars as a "proven pathway" to the NBA since 2021, citing LaMelo Ball as an example.

But there has been little public release of data to back up the claim that former Next Stars players break into the league at a higher rate than other basketball prospects.

Analysts at Basketball.com.au have also highlighted Next Stars players providing a significant pathway.

However, Basketball.com.au writes only of Next Stars' success, never comparing it against college-onset contemporaries.

This disparity between the frequency of the NBL's marketing and the scarcity of comparative data leads one to wonder how much scientific confidence there is demonstrating Next Stars’ superiority to college. The questions around eligibility rules, player development compared to college, and club negotiations for Next Star contracts also drive demand. [3]10

But at least this much is evident: anybody who doubts the narrative that Next Stars is an important new global factor in NBA player development has a whole lot of data to counter for.